With Kerry clearly winning the first two debates the pressure is on Bush big time to have a decisive victory. If Bush merely ties that probably isn't good enough. But it would be better than losing and if you use Bush math - Bush and the Republican controlled media will score a tie as a win. And as usual - the slant will be in favor of Bush.
They say that no one who has lost all the debates has won the presidency. This is a statement that I think has a basis in reality.
So - look for Bush to take more chances looking for a knockout or a sucker punch. But - if Bush take chances - it could backfire on him.
I'm looking for a hump on Bush's back - but I doubt you'll see it this time because everyone is looking for it. If I were the electronics guy builting the secret receiver - I'd put it in Bush's crotch - making him look like he has a bigger dick that Kerry - two birds - one stone.
But I do think that they should pat down the candidates to see if they are cheating. Can you imagine if Bush were caught cheating? Or if Kerry says, "Hey Bush - What's that hump on your back? Take off your jacket! " Then Kerry chases Bush around the stage trying to pull Bush's jacket off.
Kerry has the expectation problem. He is favored to win and can't shake that expectation. So if Kerry wins - he sort of stays even. Kerry could take Bush out with a good zinger tonight. But - Kerry can still fuck up. It is unlikely that Bush can win - but Kerry can lose. Will Kerry play it safe and conservative and just beat Bush by a little - or will he stomp Bush into the dust - or will he fuck up and lose?
In the Bush vs. Gore debate - Bush didn't beat Gore - Gore lost to Bush. It was Gore's screwups that cost him the election - not Bush's prowess. So - Bush's big chance will only come if Kerry makes a serious mistake.
Marc, Your analysis of the debates is correct. But, who is watching the debate? I think there are two groups of people watching the debate. The first group is people like you or me, we have already made up our minds, we are just watching to see if our candidate can kick some ass. The second group are people who are watching trying to figure out who they will vote for, when in fact they never go to vote anyway. That said, the outcome of the debate has no effect on the outcome of the election. That is my thought.
What that stock market though. Today the chatter on Wall Street was that Kerry might be even in the polls, they smoked the DOW. If Kerry takes the lead in the polls Wall Street is going to smoke the stock market.
Posted by: ANTI-anti-Tomocius at October 13, 2004 05:53 PM