Snagged this from Slate
Updated Late Afternoon Numbers
Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT
Florida
Kerry 51
Bush 49
Ohio
Kerry 51
Bush 49
Michigan
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 1
Pennsylvania
Kerry 53
Bush 46
Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 49
Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Nader 1
Minnesota
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 2
New Hampshire
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1
New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Nader 1
Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Nader 1
Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1
Missouri
Kerry 47
Bush 52
New York
Kerry 62
Bush 36
Nader 2
Nevada
Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1
New Jersey
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1
West Virginia
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1
Why is Slate running these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT
Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.
Bush stole yet another election making it two stolen elections in a row. Republican's in Ohio succeeded in suppressing the Democratic vote. It also proved that the voting machines can be hacked in ways that are untracable so far.
There is a huge gap in the results of exit polls and the results of he election and I don't think the exit polls are wrong. It will be interesting to see if the "error" in the exit polling is different in places with electronic voting than paper balots.
Nonetheless - we still have an unelected ductator and we need to do everything in our power to take America back.
I'm working with my good friend Bartcop and I set him up with a new blog and we are all posting election results there.
The Democrats are trying to get everyone to vote - especially Democrats. Republicans are working to prevent people from voting - especially Democrats.
That is an interesting question. And it depends on how close it is. The news media in an attempt to appear responsible will not start calling the results until the polls close. But - that doesn't mean they don't know beforehand.
In races where there is a significant gap there is exit polling and the news media knows these figures. Just because they don't tell you who won doesn't mean they don't know. They need to know ahead to figure out how to coner the event. And - I think you'll be able to tell by things they hint at which way things are going.
In fact - and trying not to be optimistic - but most media I see seem to be aware that Kerry is winning. A lot of voting has already occurred and there may be enough information out there to make a good guess.
I am hopeful that the dark day of America will soon be behind us. And - then there's the cheating factor that I'm woried about. Kerry can win by a landslide but between the GOP controlled media they may call Bush the winner like they did the last time.
So - its time to vote. Time to get out there and make a difference. I voted this morning.
I still have Fahrenheit 9-11 online for the next few hours. I don't know when I'm going to take it down but it will be sometime soon. I need to free up the resources so that the discussion software I'm hosting so that people can discuss the election as the results come in.
Daily Times Monitor
LAHORE: Secretary of State Colin Powell has privately confided to friends in recent weeks that the Iraqi insurgents are winning the war, Salon.com quoted Newsweek as having reported.
The insurgents have succeeded in infiltrating Iraqi forces “from top to bottom,” a senior Iraqi official told Newsweek in its Monday’s issue, “from decision making to the lower levels”.
This is a particularly troubling development for the US military, as it prepares to launch an allout assault on the insurgent strongholds of Fallujah and Ramadi, since US Marines were counting on the newly trained Iraqi forces to assist in the assault.
Newsweek reported that “American military trainers have been frantically trying to assemble sufficient Iraqi troops” to fight alongside them and that they are “praying that the soldiers perform better than last April, when two battalions of poorly trained Iraqi Army soldiers refused to fight.” “If the Fallujah offensive fails, the American president will find himself in a deepening quagmire on Inauguration Day,” Salon.com quoted Newsweek as saying.
Nov 1 2004
TONY Blair has privately admitted that he wants Democrat John Kerry to win tomorrow's US election.
The Prime Minister has acknowledged to at least two confidantes that a Kerry win would be a 'lifeline' for his own political future.
If Kerry does triumph, the result will undoubtedly help draw the poison out of the Iraq debate in Britain in the run up to a general election It would mean Blair could focus on the future of Iraq - not the disasters of the past.
And it may also soothe fractured relations within the Labour Party.
This is the last day that I'll be hosting F 9-11. Even though Michael Moore said we could pirate his movie - I believe that really means only till the election. By tomorrow about 50,000 people will have downloaded it directly from my server. Additionally other sites have sprung up that are also hosting it. So I became the site that showed the world that it was OK to do this. So I wouldn't be surprized if hundreds of thousands of people got to see the movie.
I put it up and no one asked me to take it down. Thus it appears that Micheal Moore's offer to share his work for free was genuine that with the blessing of all interested parties. And - I fantasize that if Kerry wins by a small number of votes - that I will be the one who put him over the top.
I was interviewed by Wired Magazine and was asked if I was aware of any right wing sites doing the same thing. I said that I wasn't - and that it would be illegal if they did. You see - Michael Moore gave it away for free - but the greedy Republicans didn't so I have the advantage over them. I'm not breaking the law - but they would be. Kerry might get elected because Democrats are more generous than Republicans.
font color=red>OBL message was directed at Kerry
Trying to put all my partisan biases aside - what does the OBL tape really mean? OBL had a message - but what is he really trying to say and accomplish?
After giving this careful thought it looks to me like he is NOT trying to affect the outcome of the election in spite of the fact that it comes just days before the election. There are so many elements that both hurt Bush and help Bush that I have to say it's neutal.
Let's look at the facts and see if there is a big picture here. We all know that OBL was behind 9-11. And we all now know that he's free and apparently doing well. And I think that one of the missing pieces of the puzzle is - that Bush and Osama have made a deal. And the deal is - you don't kill me - and I won't attack America.
Over a year ago the Times of India ran an article suggesting that Bush and OBL made a deal. Bush doesn't want Packistan to capture OBL. Then when Bush hd OBL at Tora Bora - he let him get away on purpose. But the think that really points to a deal is that Bush has actively downplayed the importance of capturing OBL. He has made many statements like, “I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run.” He described bin as “marginalized” and said, “I just don’t spend that much time on him.”
So - for those of you who are wondering why America hasn't been attacked - it's not the Patriot Act - the Jailing of Martha Stewart - or the deportation of Cat Stevens. Bush made a deal with OBL and as a result - we have a small wondow of security in exchange for OBL prospering in the middle east. I for one think its a bad deal.
So - now we are on the verge of an election and OBL appears on TV. Why? Because he has a message for Kerry. OBL can see that Bush is about to lose and if Bush loses - the deal goes away. So OBL is reacking out to Kerry to continue the deal. That is the message and that's why OBL made it.
Look at his change in demeanor. For the first time he is well dressed and groomed. He is not shown carrying a gun. He is going out of his was to be charking rather than threatening. As if he is preparing the American public that his deal - "you don't attack usd and we won't attack you" is something that is acceptable. And at some point Bush is going to have to break it to Kerry that there is a deal or the message will get to him through the Saudi embasy.
Making the deal with OBL is a serious mistake. Its a short term fix but the kind of fix that will get us into trouble in the long run. America has a history - mostly under Republican presidents - of getting into bed with the wrong people. OBL has now joined the club with Saddam Husein, the Shaw of Iran, Marcos, Franko, Noreiga, Pol Pot, Charles Taylor, Pinochet, and others. This is a mistake - and it will end under Kerry - I hope.
The reason is because if you vote on Monday - you've voted. If you vote on Teusday then you might run into Republican dirty tricks that might prevent you from voting. You might only have an hour lunch break and the Republicans hold you up to long and you can't vote. Or - there's just long lines.
By voting early you not only get to vote - but you are not in line Teusday so someone else can vote too. As they say - vote early and often. Especially this year.
Letter to the Editor
What does Osama bin Laden and President Bush have in common? In 2002 Bush said, "I truly am not that concerned about him." Apparently Osama bin Laden, in his televised address, is telling the world that he is truly not that concerned about Bush either.
Letter to the Editor
Many people are speculating about if the Osama bin Laden tape has a hidden message in it. What is bin Laden trying to do? Bin Laden is telling America that he won the battle against Bush. He is showing that he is alive, he is healthy, he is strong, that he is confident, that he is in control, that he is still a threat, and that he isn't afraid of George Bush. He mocks President Bush for reading "My Pet Goat" giving him more time to kill Americans. He is confirming Bush's statement that Bush is truly not that concerned about him.
Bin Laden is asserting that he is powerful and that Bush doesn't scare him. His message is - Bush has failed and that Bush is a weak leader. And the sad thing is - Osama is correct.
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Here's the simplified version of Osama's measage:
I won - you lost!
You are a moron!
You are weak and stupid!
America is Weak!
Look at me!
I'm out there - I'm free!
I'm laughing at America.
You want me - bring it on!
And - bin Laden is right! Bush really is a weak moron. In 4 more years bin Laden will still be free.
Letter to the Editor
There is a lot of debate about what the Osama bin Laden tape means. But what do we know for sure from it? Some of the things I see is that OBL is clearly alive, he's free, he's looking very healthy and relaxed, and he's clearly not worried about President Bush. Is the reason that Osama is doing so well have to do with President Bush saying, "I truly am not that concerned about him"? Osama killed 3000 Americans and got away with it. If bin Laden feels save and America doesn't - it's it time to elect a different president that will make Americans feel safe and be concerned about bin Laden?
Letter to the Editor
There are a number of superstitions that people have about who will win the election. Some people believe that it depends on if the Redskins win their last home game. Others might believe that it depends on if the stock market is up or down - or if you fail to win in a state that has voted with the winner a number of times. But I have my own superstition about who will win the election - and its something that you can do something about. The person who will win the presidency is (usually) the person who will get the most votes on Tuesday. Your future is in your hands and how you vote or if you fail to vote will make a difference to your future. Please vote.
Stephen Hawking, Britain's most eminent scientist, has become the latest prominent opponent of the Iraq war by agreeing to take the lead role in a ceremonial protest to coincide with the United States presidential election.
Peace protesters will gather in Trafalgar Square at 5pm on Tuesday, where they will read out the names of 5,000 Iraqi men, women and children known to have died in the conflict.
The full death toll was put last week as high as 100,000.
Playwrights Harold Pinter and David Hare, actress Juliet Stevenson, the Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, and relatives of British soldiers killed in action in Iraq have all agreed to take part.
Professor Hawking, the author of the best-selling book A Brief History of Time, is wheelchair-bound as a sufferer from motor neurone disease. He recorded a message on Friday that will be broadcast at the start of the rally.
The oldest protester in Trafalgar Square is likely to be a fellow scientist, the Nobel Peace Prize winner Sir Joseph Rotblat. In the 1940s, he resigned from his job developing the world's first atomic bomb on moral grounds.
Sir Joseph, who will be 96 on Thursday, said: "In this nuclear age, we simply cannot allow others to start military action unless everything else has ... been tried and has failed."
The rally comes at a time when its organisers from the Stop the War Coalition have been embroiled in controversy with one of its biggest backers, the giant public sector union Unison, which has links with the Iraqi Federation of Trade Unions, (IFTU) whose general secretary, Subhi al-Mashadani, spent more than 10 years in prison under Saddam Hussein.
Unison leaders were appalled when Mr Mashadani was barracked and jostled at a London conference two weeks ago by left-wing delegates who accused him of being a stooge for the US and British governments. The row is threatening to become an issue inside Unison, where an election is taking place for the post of general secretary - the most powerful job in the trade union movement.
Left-wing activists in the union are trying to unseat the current general secretary, Dave Prentis, for being too close to Tony Blair.
Jon Rogers, the left-wing challenger, has accused two of Mr Prentis's senior advisers, Maggie Jones and Nick Sigler, of trying to split the union from the anti-war movement. Ms Jones, who is Unison's policy director, is a former Labour Party chairman and is expected to become Labour MP for Blaenau Gwent at the next election.
Mr Sigler, who heads the union's international department, worked for many years at Labour Party headquarters.
"It is not in the best interests of Unison for circumstances to arise in which it can appear that our union is being used as a vehicle by the Labour Party leader-ship to sow division in the anti-war movement," Mr Rogers claimed in a letter to Mr Prentis, leaked to The Independent on Sunday.